UFC Japan

This is the first UFC card in Japan since late 2000. For those expecting a show reminiscent of the Pride FC days, they'll be disappointed because this is more about establishing UFC in a market where MMA has fallen way out of favor. Japan used to be the strongest market around for MMA, but Pride's demise due to the shady practices of its previous owners (The Yakuza is scary!) signalled an end to a boom period where the precipitous fall of the business spoke more to the culture of Japan than it did to the quality of the sport. It's a culture that's really prone to fads and trends, and MMA (and, to an extent, pro wrestling) has suffered because of that.

This show begins at 8:30am Sunday morning in order for the pay per view to air live at 7pm PST/10pm EST here in the US. On the plus side, it's a four hour show, meaning that we get seven fights on the main card.

Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis - In terms of fight quality, this match and the main event makes this show well worth the money spent. Joe Lauzon is one of the best first round fighters around, whose only flaw is in those later rounds where he has a tendency to gas. Only three of his 21 wins have gone past the first round, and of his six losses, only one has gone to a decision. The man has an exciting style of fighting. Pettis is just as exciting, as he's a guy that is dangerous off his back and is incredibly dynamic with his strikes. While the Showtime Kick can certainly get written off as a fluke, it's not the only crazy thing the guy has shown he can do with his feet. Much like the main event, I'm torn because I really like both guys and find it hard to pick between them. If it goes the distance, this is Pettis' fight whereas an early first or second round stoppage favors J-Lau. Put a gun to my head and I'll probably choose Pettis by decision since I don't see him getting caught in a submission.

Bart Palaszewski vs. Hatsu Hioki - In the UFC environment, few fighters who made their name in Japan have found initial success. The two factors most responsible for this appear to be the transition to a more stringently drug-tested organization and the mentality that an exciting fight is more important than winning. Hioki is the latest Japanese sensation who floundered in his UFC debut, losing to journeyman fighter George Roop. Palaszewski found success in what was supposed to be his featherweight debut against Tyson Griffin, who missed weight. My friends and I have always joked that there's a special gravity in Japan based on all of the Pride fights we witnessed that involved guys getting dropped on their head and somehow not becoming paralyzed. Perhaps that gravity will be on Hioki's side on Sunday morning. Unfortunately, it won't win him the fight. I expect this fight to go three rounds with Palaszewski coming out the winner via KO.

Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch - Okami is so boring. And Boetsch is a big and powerful middleweight. Okami's boredom almost always wins, though, unless it's someone on the upper echelon of the division, which Boetsch is not, so Okami by decision.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields - Akiyama is a guy that has had exciting fights but keeps losing because he gets into slugfests when he should be taking it to the ground and continues to get outmuscled by bigger guys at middleweight. To combat the latter, Akiyama is dropping down to welterweight for the first time, a place that makes more sense for the style of fight he's been engaging. That's not the kind of fight you get with Jake Shields, though. He is a grinder who goes for submissions with really rudimentary stand-up, and Akiyama does not have the power to take out Shields. Shields also has a tendency to stick to his game plan way more than most fighters do, his recent loss to Jake Ellenberger notwithstanding. The fact is that Shields will win, probably by decision, but I'm hoping by a submission in the first.

Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt - Mark Hunt is terrible and Cheick Kongo cheats. Kongo by TKO in the second.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan Bader - Rampage isn't motivated for this fight but that's because Bader really isn't on Rampage's level. Yes, he's good, but he's not as good as Rampage. Bader will get tired before Rampage does, and Rampage has better takedown defense than Bader does takedowns. Jackson should win by TKO in the third and move on to fight Shogun Rua later this summer.

Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar (c) for the UFC Lightweight Championship - Several of the more famous Japanese fighters will be fighting on the FX prelims, so the main event should be interesting from a crowd reaction point of view because no one there will care about Edgar or Henderson. However, if the attendants give the two half a chance, they'll be in for an exciting bout.

Ben Henderson's nickname of "Smooth" is incredibly appropriate. The guy gets out of submissions and can endure holds that can snap most limbs, tear most joints, or make most men pass out. Oftentimes, the fact that submissions don't seem to work on Henderson can break the will of his opponents, giving him the psychological advantage.He constantly presses the action with his wrestling and finds openings with his strikes. Henderson is also a great student of the game because he knows how to break down and analyze fights. This ability adds to his technique, which is often flawless.

Henderson has fought five round wars in the past, but not against anyone with the conditioning of Frankie Edgar. While Henderson has a distinct size advantage over Edgar, everyone has a size advantage over Edgar and that hasn't stopped him from beating all of his opponents, including Gray Maynard, the one guy who had previously handed him his only loss. In giving up the size, Edgar more than makes up for it with his speed and footwork, which no one in the division can match.

When I wrote about Edgar/Maynard III last October, I said that I didn't like Frankie's eventual chances against either Clay Guida or Benson Henderson. Now that the day is almost here, I can't help but change my tune. This is another occasion like Pettis/Lauzon where the longer the fight goes, the more it favors the champion, and if it ends early, it'll go the challenger's way. At some point early on, Edgar will get himself in trouble, and Henderson has a much better killer instinct than Gray Maynard could ever hope to have, so he'll capitalize. Edgar has proven he's a survivor, though, and if Henderson doesn't win in that moment, I don't see Benson winning. Henderson has a great guillotine choke and really solid body shots with his kicks. He has the best chance of winning if the fight stays on the ground, but Edgar won't let it stay there. Meanwhile, Edgar's stand up, while lacking power, is crisp, technical, and much better overall than Henderson's. The champion will retain. Frankie Edgar wins this fight by decision.

Book 3 of 2012

My brother and his wife gave me this book for my birthday because I've been a huge Brock Lesnar fan for a long time and almost got them in trouble with their downstairs neighbor once during the Shane Carwin fight by jumping up and down when Brock survived the first round of the fight. There is literally nothing exciting about how I finished this book, though.

3) Death Clutch: My Story of Determination, Domination and Survival by Brock Lesnar with Paul Heyman

For the longest time, I could honestly say that my favorite fighter is Brock Lesnar. I vividly remember hearing the stories of the 300 pound NCAA Division I Heavyweight champion training at OVW who could do a shooting star press. His WWE debut is seared into my brain because poor Maven, Al Snow and Spike Dudley had to take all of those vicious slams the night after Wrestlemania. His time in the WWE was something to behold because he took to pro wrestling so well and so quickly that it was clear he had the potential to be an all-time great. Then he quit. And while I'm still a pro wrestling fan, I started looking at UFC and found myself even more intrigued with a sport that essentially answered the question "What if pro wrestling were real?" And wouldn't you know it? Two years after I became a fan of the sport, rumors started circulating about Brock Lesnar trying his hand at MMA. I've bought every single one of his fights on pay per view, from his debut to his retirement, and even attended his loss to Cain Velasquez live. It was really easy to call the guy my favorite fighter...until I read his book.

All the athletic skill Brock Lesnar possesses makes him fun to watch. All of the bombast and egotism that drives him makes it fun to anticipate when a person can watch him again. But all of those things that make him perfect as a draw are the exact kind of things that make it really hard to like him. Part of Brock's appeal is that he is an intensely private person. He enjoys putting on the show, but he figures that putting on the show is his job. Once he's done with his job, he just wants to go home and be a family man that's left alone. It makes him more intriguing that he wants to play the game on his own terms. I'm not one to spite him that mindset, however he makes a big point on the dust jacket of the book that this is the one time he's letting everyone into his private world. Too bad that it never actually feels that way.

Case in point: during the beginning of his WWE tenure, his daughter Mya was born. The passive voice is key here because he never mentions before that he has a wife or a girlfriend, that he even got someone pregnant. From the book's point of view, Mya was delivered by a stork that decided that Brock Lesnar needed a baby. There's never any insight into what would have probably made a very interesting story. It's all surface level information that could have been gleaned through a quick read of his Wikipedia page. 

His daughter's story is not the only time this occurs. The pattern of the book is as follows: Brock wants to be number one at [insert athletic achievement here]. Brock fails or succeeds. Brock moves on to [insert next athletic achievement here]. People get in Brock's way. Brock SMASH! It's repetitive and, really, kind of boring. He comes across as someone who is hard working, who doesn't buy into any of the hype surrounding the endeavors he engages, but instead wants to make the most amount of money that he can due to his humble beginnings. 

There are two ways to consider Brock Lesnar after reading this biography: either he never lets the reader penetrate the mystique that surrounds him, or the mystique was never really there from the beginning. There's some interesting information from a fan perspective, but, ultimately, it's a disappointing read.

UFC 143

This show is light on star power but heavy on fights that look decent on paper and that are tough to predict.

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks - Herman is on a two fight win streak following a terrible knee injury. As a TUF finalist all the way back in season three, he's always been a guy that could never really take things to the next level. He's an appropriate gatekeeper for Clifford Starks, an undefeated prospect known for his wrestling. I literally have no opinion on this fight as I never saw Starks fight before, but I'm going to root for him because I don't particularly like Ed Herman and what's a fight card without me going out on a limb with a long shot? And when we don't know enough, we always go with a decision, so Clifford Starks will win by decision.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen - A few years ago, I went to watch UFC 79 at my wife's cousin's place with a large crowd of casual fans. Crowds like this are sometimes problematic for me because I tend to get a little nuts when I really focus on a fight, and it results in some weird looks thrown my way, not unlike when I attempt "humor" in any of my classes. During the course of the fight between Melvin Guillard and Rich Clementi, Clementi performed a picture perfect sweep, transitioning himself from the guard position on his back to full mount on his opponent. The fighters in the UFC are so well-rounded now that it's rare to see something like that performed with such ease at such a high level, and I deeply appreciated it the same way someone could appreciate a double play or complex lay up (Those are sports things, right?). I expressed as much in front of this crowd by saying, "Beautiful!" Cue the weird looks and comments, but, for reals, it was beautiful.

And you know what else was beautiful? Renan Barao fought Brad Pickett back in November and took his back after knocking him silly, sinking in both hooks, in such a fluid, quick motion that you'd think this guy has super powers. It was amazing and showed that Barao is for real since Pickett is no slouch. Jorgensen is a guy that is in the upper echelon of the bantamweight division, but lost recently enough to the champ that he's needing to build himself back up. Unfortunately, fighting Barao is not the way to do it because he's also riding a 27 fight win streak.  Barao has the potential to be the Jose Aldo of the bantamweight division, which is not good for Urijah Faber or Dominick Cruz, and especially terrible for Scott Jorgensen since he'll be losing to Renan Barao by submission in the second.

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce - Back in November, I explained at length why I don't like Rick Story (and, by extension, Jake Ellenberger) because he's just a guy that is completely interchangeable with any other guy. Add Mike Pierce into that same equation. All three are welterweights, too, which really doesn't help. None of them have had a fight I remember well. Granted, I watch a ton of fights, but I do so in the hopes of recognizing enjoyable fighters. Of the three, Ellenberger has been the most impressive, but none of them have shown a hint of personality. This is not to say that Pierce (or Ellenberger or Story) are not good fighters, but they're just so stereotypical in the their attitude and style that I get bored writing about them, let alone watching them in action. So whatever. Josh Koscheck will either attempt to knock him out or get knocked out, and I'll bet on the former over the latter because it's the safe way to go. Josh Koscheck wins by grinding out a decision.

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum - As claims to fame go, being the first guy in a decade to beat and submit Fedor Emelianenko is pretty great for Fabricio Werdum despite the fact that he lost the follow up match to Alistair Overeem. Werdum will be able to hang his hat on that accomplishment for at least another two years, and it goes to show how dangerous he is on the ground. But Roy Nelson has his belly on his side, along with a better stand up game, devastating knock out power, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. His portly appearance makes people underestimate his ability. Nelson is talented and smart enough to know how to neutralize any submission attempts by Werdum and vice versa. The same cannot be said for Werdum's rudimentary and pedestrian striking. The X factor in this fight is Nelson's wrestling: he's good enough to keep the fight wherever he wants to take it. Werdum is a guy I'd pick against a lot of people in the heavyweight division, but Roy Nelson has all the tools to get the job done here. I expect Nelson takes the fight by TKO in the second round.

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit for the UFC Interim Welterweight Championship - With Georges St. Pierre injured and out until late 2012, the UFC has decided to create an interim championship between its top two contenders. It's appropriate that said contenders are the final Strikeforce and WEC welterweight champions, respectively.

Carlos Condit is a finisher who always has exciting fights. All but one of his wins have come by way of KO or submission. He effectively uses kicks, punches, and knees, all to devastating effect and has a solid ground game to match. His only UFC loss is a split decision to Martin Kampmann that easily could have gone Condit's way.

Nick Diaz is similar in that he always has exciting fights. He doesn't utilize kicks in the same way as Condit, but he more than makes up for that in his volume of punches that have pinpoint accuracy. They don't look like they pack much power, but he's the only guy to make BJ Penn's face look like it went through a meat grinder after three rounds of fighting. For fun, Diaz competes in triathlons (which really speaks to his wacky personality...more on that in a second), so his gas tank is one of the best in the entire sport. It also accounts for his standard game plan, which is to push forward and overwhelm his opponent with more punches than they can handle. He eats far too many shots in the process, but each of his punches finds the mark so well that he almost always comes out the victor in those exchanges.

The difference between these two guys outside of the cage is where the real story lies. Carlos Condit, for all the accolades someone can heap upon him as a fighter, is still just a guy and does nothing to set himself apart from any other MMA fighter out there. Unlike most sports where a team mentality often overwhelms the individual stars that exist, MMA and UFC specifically is completely star-driven. Carlos Condit is a very good fighter. He's not a star.

UFC 143 is the Nick Diaz show. He is compelling, partially because he's so good but also because he's pretty nuts. He's not Chael Sonnen nuts either, where it's clear that he's pandering to the audience to garner more attention. He just doesn't want to play the game that everyone expects him to play in how someone is "supposed" to act. In an age where everyone appears media savvy to some extent, Diaz refuses to join in. He won't be friends with other fighters he might face, he'll complain about the fact that he wants to get paid more, and he'll call out the fact that he thinks GSP is faking his injury because the latter is too scared to fight the former.

Because of that GSP dust up, Carlos Condit has almost become an afterthought in the build up to his own fight. GSP, Nick Diaz and the UFC fanbase want to see those two fight so bad that it almost feels like a foregone conclusion the fight between them will be the next one that takes place. Condit can spoil those plans. His knee strikes have knocked out guys with better chins than Nick Diaz and a well-timed one can counter a body shot pretty well. But that's just me hedging my bets because Nick Diaz will fight his Nick Diaz fight, Carlos' weakness, his cardio, will be the deciding factor. Nick will earn a TKO in the fourth round to set up the biggest PPV fight of 2012.

UFC 141

This is a two fight card, and I'm not going to pretend like it's not. The only problem is that the UFC got cold feet by not putting it on New Year's Eve. The company always has a show right around the weekend of New Year's, but when the biggest party night of the year rolled around on a Saturday this year, they chickened out and put their biggest main event of 2011 on a Friday instead. It's a missed opportunity, and I hope it doesn't cost them.

Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes - Hettes is an undefeated submission specialist who has finished all of his fights inside of two rounds. Phan is a middling striker who puts on entertaining fights. Hettes takes this by rear naked choke in the first.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson - Gustafsson is a great young prospect while Matyushenko is a past-his-prime dude nicknamed the Janitor. Gustafsson wins by TKO in the second.

Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks - ...zzzzzzzzzzzFitchbydecisionzzzzzzzzzzzz...

Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone - All right, now we're talking!

Donald Cerrone has deserved the spotlight for a good long while now, and getting the semi-main event slot for his second pay per view main card appearance is a nice way of doing it. He's riding a six fight win streak, finishing four of his opponents in the process and looking impressive with each outing. Cerrone has had some mental hurdles to overcome in the past, having a tendency to lose the early rounds before realizing he's in a fight, but ever since he transferred over to the UFC from the now defunct WEC, he's looked energized and come across as a title contender. There are few people in the UFC's midcard I anticipate watching more than the Cowboy.

AND HE'S FIGHTING A DIAZ!!

Guys, the Diaz brothers are tremendous because they're each individually more of a cartoon character than Chael Sonnen could ever hope to be with the added benefit of actually believing everything they say. While Nick is the crazier of the two, Nate certainly holds his own. For instance, the story goes that Cerrone, being the sportsman that he is, went up to Diaz at a public workout event to shake his hand. Diaz promptly slapped it away and called him a few choice words that are bleeped on television, explaining that they were in the same division so Cerrone was out of line. I wish I was making this up, but that's just Nate Diaz.

Thankfully, he fights as well as he talks, putting on a career best performance against Takanori Gomi back in September. However, Gomi is a shell of his former self and has had a terrible UFC run, so was that fight a case of Diaz taking his game to a new level at lightweight or looking great against an awful opponent? Regardless, the UFC brass saw Nate in a new way after the fight. Before that, he made a run at welterweight and lost two in a row, mostly because he couldn't handle the size advantage that most fighters in the division have over him.

Of the two, Cerrone has the better technical striking and Diaz has the better ground game, while neither are great shakes as wrestlers. Diaz can overwhelm opponents with his barrage of pitter-patter punches, but Cerrone has pretty great head movement and a solid chin and his kicks are enough to give a guy like Dennis Siver the shakey legs. Cerrone also is good enough on the ground not to get caught in a Diaz trap, while I can't say the same for Diaz when it comes to Cerrone standing. Another factor is that Cerrone trains with some world-class wrestlers at Greg Jackson's gym, so he probably gets the nod there despite the fact that neither guy is known for their takedown ability. How he wins isn't as clear to me, but I don't see anyone else but Donald Cerrone coming out the victor on this one. Let's say that Cerrone wins by TKO in the third.

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem - Let's address the elephant in the room first for anyone who has been paying attention to the recent hubbub: this fight should not be happening due to the Nevada State Athletic Commissions. Call it incompetence at best or a conflict of interest at worst, but after it took Alistair Overeem 27 days to get a urine sample to the commission when they attempted to do a 48 hour drug test back in the middle of November, the fight should have been cancelled. As a fight fan, I'll still be glad to watch this bout, but, man, does it make them, the UFC and the sport as a whole look bad when shenanigans like this take place.

Overeem is a world class striker and a world class HGH and steroid abuser. See, this is what's great about being a fan of the sport who just happens to enjoy writing about it as opposed to a journalist or anything else where I'd have to be politically correct in my choice of words. Up until 2007, Overeem was an okay light heavyweight with a tall frame and a lean physique. A year later he put on 50 pounds of muscle and started destroying scrubs in Japan in the heavyweight division, where no one does any kind of drug testing. Stranger still, his face started to change shape, and a common side effect of growth hormone usage is a thickening of the jaw and bones in the head and face. No matter how much muscle a dude puts on, it's not all that common for their head to change as much shape as their body. Overeem, by the way, attributes his new body (and head girth) to eating horse meat. No, really.

But that's besides the point, isn't it? The point is that he punches and kicks really hard and can do so pretty accurately. And his opponent does not react well to getting punched in the face. Overeem also has a solid kimura and a pretty good guillotine, both of which he applies with more power than he does technique.

Don't mistake my criticism of Overeem for his suspect musculature for hypocrisy when I repeat for the umpteenth time on this blog that Brock Lesnar is my favorite fighter. Defending him and the fact that he's built like a man and a half is pretty easy considering his history of always being a giant. And who knows? Maybe they're both juicing. I like Brock more and that's all that really matters.

Also, he's going to win if he plays it smart. Not playing it smart would be to attempt to stand up for any length of time whatsoever at all with Overeem, and I don't see Brock doing that. Frank Mir laid out the exact game plan that I envision over at Yahoo. Brock will attempt a takedown, Overeem will sprawl, Brock will then power through and bull him against the fence where he'll trap him. Overeem will attempt to stand, and might even do so a few times, but lathering, rinsing and repeating the same strategy from Brock is all that will happen once he does stand up.

Well, that'll just lead to a boring decision then won't it?

No, faceless question asker, it won't. This is where the important distinction between the two men comes into play. Overeem is mentally weak and will break. Whether that happens before or after he gasses out is up in the air, but both will happen. Fifty pounds of extra muscle is all well and good until a person is forced to carry it around with another guy of equal size attempting to keep one down for the better part of a fast-paced five to ten minutes. The guillotine and kimura won't play a factor after that, and for all of the talk about Brock Lesnar not being able to take a punch, he sure does know how to hit really hard, especially on a prone opponent. That'll easily set Overeem up for an arm triangle.

Brock wins this fight in the second round by submission. 

UFC 139

Sadly, this might be a show that I don't see, but it's got some far-reaching implications for the light-heavyweight and bantamweight divisions, so I'd feel remiss if I just ignored it since my opinion alone is the sole one available on the vast Internets about the sport of mixed-martial arts. Besides all that, it's a card that, while lost in the shuffle of the recent glut of shows, is deep on potentially awesome fights. If Miguel Angel Torres fights on the undercard, then you're looking at a really packed night.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury - Both guys are riding win streaks, Bonnar at two and Kingsbury at four, but it's Kingsbury who has looked the most impressive of late with two fight of the night bonuses under his belt and a wider array of skills to accompany his impressive new physique. Bonnar has languished for quite some time and is getting older as a fighter. Kingsbury is the younger guy who appears to finally be putting all of the pieces together to take his game to the next level while Bonnar starts to settle into a newer position as a broadcaster. By no means am I suggesting that Bonnar hang it up, but I don't like his odds in this contest. Kingsbury will get the decision in what will probably be a slobberknocker of a fight.

Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story - Kampann lost a pick-em fight against Diego Sanchez that easily could have gone his way and came out the losing end in Jake Shields' UFC debut. Meanwhile, Story, a guy who comes across as the meatiest of meatheads in every interview he ever does, was riding a six fight win streak and probably in line for a title shot until he took a fight against Charlie Brenneman on short notice less than a month after the biggest win of his career against Thiago Alves. In a convoluted set of circumstances that can only happen in MMA, he was set to fill in for an injured Anthony Johnson against Nate Marquardt when Marquardt tested positive for performance enhancing drugs and subsequently got himself fired the day before the show. Instead of headlining against a big name dude in Marquardt, Story wound up facing a dude in Brenneman who had thought his fight was cancelled earlier in the week. IT IS CONFUSING, THIS FIGHTING THING.

Anyway, it wasn't a smart decision on Story's part since his body was exhausted from overtraining and attempting to peak it for a second time so soon after his last fight, resulting in a loss to the much fresher Brenneman. I explain all of this mostly to remind myself who Rick Story is since, besides this story and the aforementioned meathead comment, I always get him confused with Jake Ellenberger. They look alike (with Ellenberger being a little bit more notable for resembling a mini version of Rich Franklin) and are so nondescript and forgettable despite being decent fighters that I can never be bothered to care about their fights. Meanwhile, I like Kampmann enough to remember who he is but only if he's facing a guy that I think can make his fights memorable and exciting. Technically, Story can do that, but I am not in the mood to care. Plus, Story just rubs me the wrong way, if it wasn't already obvious. Story will get the decision, but I'm hoping for a Kampann win.

Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles - Here's the first in our triple main event: a number one contender's match for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. It's been well-established that mine is a household squarely in the California Kid's camp, as he is my wife's second favorite fighter. That being said, Brian Bowles is long overdue for a rematch for the championship he lost to Cruz. Bowles' biggest enemy has been time since his year on the shelf after losing the belt hurt his visibility.

It doesn't help that Bowles, despite being an exciting fighter won his last fight in a boring match against Takeya Mizugaki and has a personality that's akin to watching paint dry. There's no doubt in my mind that Brian Bowles is a perfectly pleasant fellow, but, man, he's boring. Whatever excitement he generates in the Octagon pales in comparison to the disinterest he creates in every other possible situation. He is the prototypical MMA fighter in that he trains hard and does his utmost to respect every other fighter he's up against. Ask him who he wants to fight next and he'll say, "Whoever the UFC puts in front of me." That's a fine attitude for some fighters to have, but a variety of personalities creates stars, and what many of these young fighters don't realize is that calling people out and being more than the respectful, hard-working athlete allows them to make a name for themselves off the established name of others.

Urijah Faber is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. He's outgoing, clever and a crowd pleaser outside of his fights as much as he is during them. That's where the lack of personality hurts Bowles. Despite winning two in a row and his sole loss being a literal and figurative bad break to the current champ, Bowles is here in a number one contender's match-up against Faber, a guy who has lost four championship bouts. Because he's a draw that has a large fanbase, and even though his last fight was a loss to Dominick Cruz, Faber is again vying for a title shot that should theoretically already belong to Bowles.

All of this means little in terms of the winner, though. And Faber is going to win because he's the superior wrestler and grappler. Bowles has a tight guillotine choke and dynamite in his hands, but Faber is too fast and too powerful to get caught. Faber will get the win with a submission in the second.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le - Originally pitting the San Jose native against the much larger and much more dangerous Vitor Belfort, Cung Le instead makes his UFC debut against the former Pride Middleweight Champion. Le is a passable enough wrestler who uses it defensively to employ his devastating and dynamic striking. Without question, Cung Le has the best kicks in MMA. Everyone knows it and everyone he faces plans for them, yet he's still able to employ them every single time, which just goes to show how great he is. Unfortunately, he came into MMA fairly late in life and is getting on in years. Plus, he fights so rarely that rust has to be considered going into this fight.

Meanwhile, Wanderlei Silva is technically younger than Le, but in fighting years, this guy is ancient. For most of his career, he earned his nickname "the Axe Murderer" by plowing through opponents utilizing the windmill strategy. He moved forward non-stop, eating punches in an effort to land more than his opponent and eventually knock the guy out. A guy's chin can only take so many punches, especially from folks who have more technical striking, and now Silva is bearing the brunt of all of those years of abuse. He's 2-4 in his UFC career and his jaw has turned to glass, but a fighter is always the last one to know when to retire. That's just sad. Cung Le wins this by knockout in the first round.


Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Dan Henderson - This five round fight appears to have implications for two different weight classes.

Rua is coming off a decisive victory over Forrest Griffin. He appears healthy, which is always a concern with Shogun, and his main weapons are his forward motion and technical striking combined with a great submission game. He's attempting to get back into the light heavyweight championship picture and a win over the current Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champ can go a long way towards making that dream a reality, despite how convincingly he lost the title to Jon Jones back in March.

Then there's 40 year old Dan Henderson, he of the granite chin, caveman face and right hand forged from the power of a thousand volcanoes. Additionally, he's world renowned Greco-Roman wrestler. He's riding a three fight win streak, with the biggest victory coming earlier this year against the vaunted (or overhyped...take your pick) Fedor Emelianenko. With his return to the UFC, Henderson hopes to make a statement that defies what most folks his age should be able to do. He's mentioned that with a win here, he'd like to challenge Anderson Silva to a rematch at middleweight, since Hendo is a small light heavyweight who has fluctuated between 205 and 185 over the course of his career. Can he do it?

Eh, I don't think so. This is a fight that favors Rua and I see Shogun winning with a submission in the third or fourth round.

UFC 136

Between August 27 and November 12, every single UFC championship (injuries permitting) will be defended. We've already seen three go down, with Anderson Silva, Jon Jones and Dominick Cruz all defending and retaining their belts, and this Saturday we have two more up for grabs. And on paper from top to bottom, this is a great night of fights that's not limited to a USA versus [Insert Foreign Country Here] theme like the UFC Rio card. In fact, this is a card where going over the Spike prelims feels like a necessity just to get over how incredibly deep the card feels from a fight quality standpoint. Another thing to note is that this is the fourth Saturday in a row to have a fight card, and then we get a two week break before another five week stretch, which includes the UFC's debut on FOX. Maybe during one of those weeks when I write about what's going on in class (1), I'll also delve into the UFC's over-saturation problem.

(1) Yes, I still do that.

Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago - Maia is a jiu-jitsu whiz while Santiago seems to always choke in the figurative sense whenever he's in the UFC, as he only has a 1-4 record. I suspect that will go to 1-5 since Maia has improved his stand-up to levels that are just above competent, and he possesses a much better gas tank than Santiago. Hopefully, it's not boring like many of Maia's recent fights have been since he uses his grappling to neutralize his opponents as opposed to submitting them, but I suspect Demian Maia will win by unanimous decision.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Anthony Pettis - While Joe Silva is the booker and matchmaker for the UFC, Jeremy Stephens seems to have a spell over him in order to book his own programs. Stephens MO of late has been to call someone out on Twitter either just to fight or for ducking him, and then, magically, Silva schedules the fight. It's such a simple concept that so few fighters seem to realize: if a fighter wants to get people to see a fight, the UFC will make it happen. Meanwhile, Anthony Pettis has had a rough 2011 considering how well his 2010 ended. His guaranteed title unification fight got thrown out the window following the draw between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard on January 1. Instead of waiting for those two to settle things, especially considering how the second rematch was postponed from its original Memorial Day booking, Pettis opted to keep busy and put his title shot on the line in a losing effort against Clay Guida. In order to stay relevant in the title picture, Pettis needs to win against Stephens. I suspect he will; Pettis is more dynamic with his striking, even if he doesn't possess his opponent's knockout power, and he has a much better ground game. Stephens has shown a weakness for submissions, too: half of his losses have come via submission. His best bet is to take the fight to the ground, and Anthony Pettis will win by choke late in the second.

Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia - This is a rematch from a fight last year where Garcia took the bout on short notice, got winded, and clearly lost the fight as Phan overwhelmed him on several occasions. However, two of the judges saw something very different than the rest of the world and awarded Garcia the split decision. Both guys are known for stand-up wars, but Phan has a more disciplined approach and Garcia swings for the fences on every single punch. While neither guy has a weak chin, Garcia has proven to be able to take a punch to the mush more than once. Phan has a tendency, sometimes through no fault of his own, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The two will approach the match-up with a Fight of the Night bonus in mind, but Garcia will take the decision, mostly because he'll have a full training camp and gas tank to back him up this time around.

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon - Take a look at Joe Lauzon's record in the UFC. J-Lau has one fight that's gone to a decision in his entire career. He either wins in the first half of the fight or he gasses and gets overwhelmed by his opponent. Lauzon has a tendency to be a great first round fighter that can't put things together enough to take on the upper echelon of the division. In essence, he's a fun guy to watch, but he's a gatekeeper. That's really why this fight makes no sense. Melvin Guillard is on a five fight win streak and is already (probably) the number three contender in the division. There is no upside for him. If Guillard wins, it's a lateral move and he's no better off than he was before in the mythical UFC rankings, and if he loses, well, that's it until he builds up another five wins in a row. Meanwhile, Lauzon's stock will shoot into the stratosphere should he submit Guillard here, and submissions are Melvin's weakness. But ever since he started training with Greg Jackson's camp, Guillard has finally put all of the pieces together to live up to the potential that his long career has suggested. Melvin is 28, too, so it's not like his 40 fight career means that he's over the hill. The likely scenario here, despite the fact that I'll be rooting for Creepy Joe to get a submission, is Melvin Guillard knocking Joe Lauzon out, maybe in the first but likely in the second round.

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann - I make no apologies for being a huge Chael Sonnen fan because I'm also a huge pro wrestling fan, and Chael Sonnen is the best trash-talker in sports. There's no one in wrestling, MMA, boxing, football, baseball, hockey, basketball, soccer, rugby or anything else who can speak with the eloquence and audacity of Chael Sonnen. He's a breath of fresh air in a sport so self-conscious about being collectively perceived as a bunch of barbarians that few attempt to stand out as personalities for fear of being disrespectful. Not Chael Sonnen. Granted, it's doubtful that he believes half of the things that he says (2), but the fact that he has the gall to say it at all speaks to the confidence the man has in his ability to back it up.

(2) The Nogueira brothers feeding a carrot to a bus has even become a bit of a running joke that grows in absurdity every time he makes reference to it.

It's too bad that his opponent, Brian Stann, is an American war hero, negating the opportunity for Sonnen's usual pre-fight banter. Instead, we have to focus on each fighter's ability. Sonnen is the best wrestler in the middleweight division who only loses when he has a brain-fart that leaves him open to submissions, especially triangle chokes. Stann is a constantly improving stand-up artist and grappler, with a weakness in takedown defense. Matching the two together creates an interesting fight, but one I think is academic in Sonnen winning. No doubt, Stann will eventually fight for the championship, but for now, Sonnen will take the fight by decision, no doubt calling Anderson Silva a jerk after winning. With any luck, the two will then coach FX's first season of The Ultimate Fighter and subsequently headline a stadium in Brazil for the blowoff. It'd be even better if said season also served as a tournament to crown a champion in the new 125 lbs. flyweight division, but beggars can't be choosers.

Kenny Florian vs. Jose Aldo (c) for the UFC Featherweight Championship - The stories of this fight are the health of the champion and whether or not the challenger is a guy that chokes in high pressure situations. Jose Aldo didn't look as good as he usually does in his defense against Mark Hominick in April, and given how good he usually looks, it's made people question if Aldo is for real or not. But that fight appears to be a hiccup more related to Aldo's trouble making weight than a condemnation of his stamina or ability. Considering those factors, it's impressive how dominant he was in the fight against Hominick, even if he wasn't as dynamic as he's demonstrated in the past.

No offense to Hominick, but he's no Kenny Florian, one of the smartest fighters in the game who is also one of the most well-rounded. MMA is a battle of inches, and each of his major losses that Dana White called "chokes" last year were anything but. He lost to a much bigger and much stronger Sean Sherk back when Sherk was a fighter that mattered. In his second attempt at the belt, he faced the greatest lightweight on the planet with a shoddy game plan when BJ Penn submitted him. Florian's last loss was to the guy fighting for the lightweight title on this very card who is still technically undefeated. Those guys all are (or were) very good, and losing to each of them doesn't make Florian a choker as much as it does a guy who lost each of those fights on that given night.

So here's the question: what if Aldo's first defense in the UFC wasn't a hiccup? Aldo has lingering issues stemming from a neck injury last December, and getting thrown on one's head and suffering from spinal compression doesn't just go away. Jose Aldo has the advantage on the feet as he continues to approach Anderson Silva proportions in his ability to move his head and kick people in the face. Both guys are fairly even on the ground. If what happened to Aldo last time happens here, then Florian will win because he's a much better fighter off his back than Hominick. If that happens, I'd also be fine with it because Florian is an excellent representative of the sport. But those are both big ifs. As much as MMA is a game of inches, Jose Aldo is starting a few feet ahead of his opponent, so I predict that Aldo will TKO Florian in the third round. It'll be a long time before Florian gets another shot, too.

Gray Maynard vs. Frankie Edgar (c) for the UFC Lightweight Championship - These two fought to a draw back on January 1, and Maynard is the guy who handed Edgar the sole loss of his career. There are any number of acceptable ways to score their last fight, but the fact remains that it was close in every conceivable way. Maynard clearly destroyed Edgar in the first to the point that a case could be made for a 10-7 round. Edgar came back and a similar case could be made for him winning each of the final four 10-9 with two or more of the rounds going Maynard's way. When a fight is that close, a draw is a perfectly acceptable outcome. Heck, draws should be happening more based on the asinine 10 point must system in place, which is a poor fit for MMA, but judges are too scared they won't be asked back if they score too many fights or rounds that way.

Here's how this fight breaks down based on the career trajectory of both guys. Maynard is a guy that started at a very high level by utilizing his wrestling better than anyone in the sport outside of Jon Jones. He has power in his hands, but he doesn't know how to use them. Of his 11 wins, only two are finishes, both early in his career. Maynard's picture will appear in the eventual MMA dictionary under the term "grinder" next to Jon Fitch and Antonio McKee. However, his improvement has only been incremental. Compare that to Frankie Edgar. Every single time he's stepped into the Octagon, he's shown a vast array of improvements. His foot work, his wrestling, his takedown defense, his grappling, and his ability to land punches have all grown by leaps and bounds. The Frankie Edgar that fought Gray Maynard in 2008 is not the same fighter while the Gray Maynard that fought Frankie Edgar in 2008 is virtually identical.

It's very possible that Gray Maynard is the guy that has Frankie's number. I don't see it that way. Despite being undersized for the division, Frankie Edgar gets the job done and improves each time he fights. Frankie Edgar will retain the title by unanimous decision, finally putting the Maynard question behind him and going on to face the winner of the November 12 Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida war. Against either of those guys, though? I don't like Edgar's chances. But that's a story for another time.

Book 28 of 2011

I finished this using the Kindle app on my laptop during my prep period.

27) Let's Get It On: The Making of MMA and It's Ultimate Referee by "Big" John McCarthy with Loretta Hunt
One of the big items on my bucket list is to serve in some capacity as either a judge or referee in MMA. It's not something that is just going to happen, I understand. And in the meantime I should probably start taking jiu-jitsu classes or something similar as a way to further my knowledge and understanding of the sport, but, similar to teaching being a way to further my passion for English, I like to think being a ref or a judge is a way for me to contribute to something about which I'm very passionate. At the moment, it's a financial and time commitment that I can't afford, but that's why it's a bucket list, right? John McCarthy is the first and most famous ref in MMA, and his book provides a ton of insight into how refs function inside and outside of the fight game.

UFC 135

I'm really excited for this card (to the point I started writing this preview the Tuesday before UFC Rio). Of course, that jinxed the card as Diego Sanchez broke his hand a week or so later, forcing Josh Koscheck to replace him in the fight against Matt Hughes. And upon further review, it's a two match show, but they're a really cool two matches.

Mark Hunt vs. Ben Rothwell - This is a battle of the lurps. From what I understand, Mark Hunt had an iron-clad contract with Pride that UFC absorbed when they purchased the company, preventing him from getting cut if he loses. How else can they explain that he debuted with UFC coming off a five fight losing streak, lost his first match in just over a minute, and still has a job? Meanwhile, Ben Rothwell is a terrible fighter that looks, acts and fights like the beta version of Tim Sylvia. He employs a Homer Simpson strategy of letting someone hit him enough times until his opponent tires out, except that it often backfires and Rothwell is the one that gasses. Also, he's dumb and stupid and a lunkhead with a much higher opinion of his fighting prowess than is deserved. Let's also not forget that both he and Mark Hunt could literally eat me for lunch if either wanted, but I have the armor of the Internet to protect me. Since both guys are equally terrible, I'm hoping for a mutually assured destruction type of finish where both guys spontaneously combust due to how much pure, unmitigated human bile will be in the octagon, and the only thing that would make it better is if Steve Mazzagatti is also the ref and he, too, explodes. Barring that, Rothwell will probably finish Hunt by TKO in the first, or he'll get a boring decision.

Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi - Gomi has looked pretty awful in making the transition from Japan to the UFC, with a sole knockout win of Tyson Griffin sandwiched between losses to Kenny Florian and Clay Guida. Meanwhile, Diaz is coming off two losses in a row at welterweight, one an even grappling match to Dong Hyun-Kim and the other a fight where Diaz was completely dismantled and destroyed by Rory "Bacne" MacDonald. Diaz has the much better ground game while Gomi's wrestling skills give him the advantage. Both have good stand-up with the power edge going Gomi's way. However, Diaz, much like his nutbar of a brother Nick, has much quicker hands and can pepper a guy with three shots for each one thrown by his opponent. He's making his return to 155 lbs., which may not work in his favor, but will definitely give him the size advantage over a guy that should be fighting at featherweight or even bantamweight. Plus, Gomi doesn't have the speed he used to have and really seems to be coasting on past glory. I suspect that Diaz will submit Gomi in the third round.

Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton - It's another battle of lurps! Except this time, they're both slightly younger and possibly more talented. Honestly, I haven't seen enough of Broughton to give a solid opinion on him, but Browne is coming of a great KO of Stefan Struve (1) and is technically undefeated. I'll give Browne the nod and when I don't know either fighter well enough, it's always by way of decision.

(1) Stefan Struve stands 6'11'' and towers over everyone else in the heavyweight division as its tallest member. He's fighting Pat Barry on October 1. Barry is the shortest guy in the heavyweight division at 5'9'' AND I CAN'T WAIT FOR THAT FIGHT! UFC generally doesn't do freak show fights, and this technically isn't that, but it's still going to be quite the spectacle considering that Struve can literally stick his arm out on Barry's head and laugh while the latter swings wildly at air.

Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck - As a lifelong pro wrestling fan, it's really easy to see the dynamics inherent to MMA that used to be the exclusive domain of sports entertainment. While Diego Sanchez taking on the former Welterweight Champion was an intriguing fight, his broken hand prevents the fight from taking place right now. However, Josh Koscheck presents just as interesting a fight and adds an extra dynamic of him being a humongous jerk. Koscheck knows how fans feel about him and he plays his role to perfection. In fact, in a lot of ways, Josh Koscheck is the greatest natural pro wrestling heel in all of MMA.

And he's facing a guy that recently experienced a bit of a face turn in my eyes. Granted, the change has come more in my perception of him than in anything Hughes himself has done. Matt Hughes has a tendency to come across as arrogant when facing humble opponents, but he's never deviated from being the same guy over the years despite that rubbing people the wrong way. After attending a Matt Hughes Q&A over the summer, I really started to appreciate what my buddy Scott had believed about Hughes all along: he just tells it like it is. If what Hughes says happens to be something that's true about him, that doesn't necessarily make it bragging or arrogance.

This is the last fight on Hughes' contract, and reports are that his wife wants him to call it quits after this one. Koscheck is coming off a ten month layoff due to GSP cracking his orbital bone. Really, it's a fight that should have happened a long time ago. I don't think that Hughes ducked a fight with Koscheck, but he didn't exactly seek it out either. This is the kind of battle that would have cemented Hughes' supremacy at the time or made Koscheck a star. Unfortunately, Hughes' legacy is pretty well-established at this point and Koscheck is already a star, so a win isn't going to further either guy up the ladder nor will a loss really hurt either of them. When Sanchez got axed, my first thought was that Rory MacDonald made the most sense for Hughes because he's an up-and-comer in the way Koscheck was many years ago. But you play the hand you're dealt.

The two are pretty close to even in their wrestling, and Koscheck has the advantage standing while Hughes has the advantage when implementing submissions. Fights between wrestlers of this caliber usually end up being stand-up affairs, and Koscheck's speed and knockout power will conceivably give Hughes a lot of problems, especially coming off his 20 second knockout loss to BJ Penn. This is a fight where my heart desperately wants Hughes to win while my brain screams that Koscheck will come out victorious. If it's stopped, Koscheck will be the one to end it, probably by TKO. BUT! My official pick is that Matt Hughes will win by split decision because he has a tendency to sway the judges with his grappling even when he's losing on his feet.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Jon "Bones" Jones (c) for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship - Let's ignore all of the silliness of accusations that Jones has a spy in Rampage's camp because Jones said it best during the Countdown special: Rampage never has a complex game plan. He rarely uses his wrestling anymore except for takedown defense, only attempts to throw hands while focusing on counterpunching, and utilizes knees to the legs and midsection while caught in the clinch.

Meanwhile, Jones, the youngest Light Heavyweight Champion in UFC history, utilizes an array of strikes, has had no trouble taking anyone down and has demonstrated a varied and unique submission game. He has the height and reach advantage over Rampage and showed in winning the belt that he can implement the jab and all sorts of kicks to keep the distance if he chooses. Rampage says that Jones doesn't have the power to take him out, but Shogun Rua's face tells a different story.

Honestly, Rampage is so one-dimensional and Jones is so multi-dimensional that I can't see any way Rampage comes out of this the winner. The real test for Jones is how he responds to being threatened in a fight, and the problem in trying to figure that out is that Jones so far has not been threatened in the least. He's taken out a string of middle-of-the-pack fighters and destroyed two top ten guys in Bader and Shogun. Is Bader as good as he appeared? A loss to Tito Ortiz suggests he may not have been. Did Jones face Shogun at the top of his game? All signs point to no, thanks to his destruction of Forrest Griffin. Should that take away from Jones and his accomplishments? At the end of the day, it shouldn't. If you're healthy enough to take a fight then you're healthy enough to lose a fight.

All of this is to just find some justifiable way to consider a Rampage win, and nothing convinces me that will happen. I suspect that Jones will wear Rampage down with leg kicks and strikes to the body, following up on that with some ground and pound on a prone Jackson in the later rounds. Jon Jones will TKO Rampage Jackson in the fourth round. Then things get interesting as I suspect that we'll get the much-anticipated Jon Jones/Rashad Evans fight come Superbowl weekend.

UFC Rio

Due to injuries and an effort to build up the bantamweight and featherweight divisions, UFC 134 is the highest profile card the promotion has put on all summer with a triple whammy of main and semi-main event fights. The reason for the stacked card is simple: this is the UFC's first trip to Brazil in over a decade. For as much time as ten years is, it might as well be the first time the company has ever been to the country, and it's definitely the first show under the auspices of Zuffa, LLC, who bought UFC back in 2001. The country is rabid for this show, and booking an arena that holds 14,000 people as opposed to a giant soccer stadium that holds 100,000 was a big mistake. Hopefully, Dana White will fix that with the next go-round in a year and the fans will be just as ready for that show, too. Joe Silva has booked the card the way the company normally approaches a Canadian or British show, making all but one of the matches feature a native Brazilian taking on what the attendants will view as an evil foreigner.

Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov - Cane has had his ups and downs since losing to Li'l Nogueira while I know nothing about Nedkov outside of the fact that he's Bulgarian, undefeated and making his debut with UFC. It's really a coin flip as far as predictions are concerned, so I'll be nice and pick Luiz Cane to win by decision.

Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza - This fight looks pretty tough for Pearson, whose claim to fame as the winner of The Ultimate Fighter lost some luster with a defeat to Cole Miller last year. Barboza, meanwhile, is an undefeated prospect who has really flashy stand-up. The Brazilian has a wider array of strikes than the Brit, and neither guy has great wrestling, so I only see this going to the ground if Pearson gets desperate. That'll be made even tougher as Barboza has devastating leg kicks, defeating two separate opponents via TKO that way. I suspect Pearson will suffer the same fate and Barboza to win by TKO late in the second round.

Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira - While anything can happen in the fight game -- just ask Tito Ortiz -- the booking of this fight seems pretty mean. Nogueira is the hometown boy and former UFC Heavyweight Champion, but he's been out for 18 months since getting knocked out by Cain Velasquez. The layoff has more to do with his accumulation of other injuries that had nothing to do with his two minute performance against the current heavyweight champ. His back has its issues, and he's coming back now after surgery on both knees followed by dual hip surgery. Big Nog is only 35 yet looks like he's in his fifties due to the amount of punishment he's taken over his long career. The guy is banged up is what I'm saying.

His opponent, however, is a young prospect with a lone loss on his record who has been running through most of his opponents with relative ease. Brendan Schaub has one decision win in his career, and that's a fight that he clearly dominated until the last ten seconds of the final round. Those ten seconds revealed a weakness that Nogueira can exploit, as Schaub's ground game appears pretty weak. However, getting Schaub to the ground may be easier said than done. Plus, Schaub is a really good striker, and it doesn't appear that Nogueira's chin is as cracked up as it used to be if the loss to Velasquez is any indication.

And that's what makes this fight seem sad. Antonio Nogueira's career has fewer fights ahead of it than behind, and while he could pull a Tito Ortiz level upset against Brendan Schaub, smart money says that won't happen. Schaub will probably win by KO in the first, but I very well might be overselling the extent to which Nogueira is truly shot and reports of his MMA demise could be greatly exaggerated.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Forrest Griffin - The first fight between both of these former UFC Light Heavyweight Champions is important for the sake of history and showing how far each fighter has progressed since the initial outing. Shogun Rua debuted in the UFC as a heavy favorite against Forrest Griffin at UFC 76, touted as the number one LHW in the world due to his dominance in Pride. As with a lot of fighters who make it big in Japan, Rua showed some really glaring weaknesses in the fight in his questionable gas tank and proclivity for injuries. Meanwhile, Griffin, my wife's favorite fighter, demonstrated two of his trademarks: deep stamina and tremendous heart. Forrest Griffin is a guy that fights until someone is knocked out -- it doesn't matter if he's the one on the canvas or his opponent. Sure, he'll take a submission, but his chief concern (as long as he's gotten at least one win under his belt for the year, as Griffin stated after his win against Rich Franklin) is to trade with his opponent because he likes punching people in the face even if it means he has to take a few shots in return. Rua came out strong in the first round, like he normally does, but he became tired and Griffin eventually upset Shogun with a rear naked choke submission late in the final round. Shogun then took a year and a half off due to knee problems.

In the four years since that fight, both guys have won and lost the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, and both have taken extended periods of time off due to injury. More than anyone, though, Shogun Rua has a tendency to come back too soon from his injuries, usually making them worse in the long run. Besides the time he took off after fighting Forrest Griffin, Rua also took almost a year off following his rematch with Machida where he won the championship. In both instances, the first fight back (against Mark Coleman and Jon Jones, respectively) after the extended layoff saw Shogun have a really have a tough time with his cardio. Rua insists that he wasn't injured going into the Jones fight but merely got hurt early and never recovered. Does that mean he's 100% going into his fight with Forrest? It's hard to say, but considering his attitude, I wouldn't be surprised if Rua still has lingering injury issues.

Whatever the state of Shogun, I expect a really exciting first round from both guys since Forrest is a gamer and especially if a first round is all Rua has to offer. I'm rooting for Forrest because I love watching the guy fight and I also know that it's the safest call to make in my household considering how much my wife loves the guy. Forrest will take the win by decision, but with the caveat that I wouldn't be surprised if Rua pulls an Anderson Silva-like knockout against him, too.

Yushin Okami vs. Anderson Silva (c) for the UFC Middleweight Championship - Speaking of the champ, Anderson Silva finally gets his rematch against the guy who last managed to secure a victory against him when he faces Yushin Okami. At least, that's how many people are hyping the fight, and that is how it looks on paper. Only Silva lost via DQ after throwing an illegal kick and Okami had trouble recovering. Silva has hinted that Okami exaggerated his condition at the time and could have continued but was too afraid. The infamous Chael Sonnen, Yushin's training partner for the fight, insists that Anderson threw the kick intentionally hoping to gain a better position upon the separation for it. Granted, everything Chael Sonnen says should be taken with a truckload of salt, which is one of the things that makes him so great.

Anderson Silva and Yushin Okami are the yin to each other's yang. Where Anderson Silva is one of the most exciting fighters to watch (when he's motivated), watching Yushin Okami fight is akin to watching grass grow over drying paint. He's the worst. Oftentimes, an Okami fight is actually a detriment to me wanting to watch a show because he goes for the clinch, eventually manages a takedown and then proceeds to pepper his opponent with just enough shots so as not to get stood up. Okami is more of a "fight not to lose" competitor than Georges St. Pierre, and like the middleweight champ, he's enough of a great wrestler to make that the case more often than not.

But this is Anderson Silva we're talking about, right? He's the pound for pound greatest fighter in the world, the guy with the most wins ever in the UFC, not to mention the longest winning streak and most championship defenses! AND STEVEN SEGAL HAS GIVEN HIM SUPER ZEN CHAI TEA LATTE POWERS OF KICKING! Apparently. But I wrote something back in February when referring to the holes Chael Sonnen revealed in Anderson Silva's game that went thusly: "He's susceptible to the takedown, and while Silva is adept at finding a submission off his back, a fighter who can avoid or defend said submissions has a strong chance of beating the premiere middleweight in the UFC." If that doesn't describe Yushin Okami to a captial T, I don't know what does. Okami isn't the wrestler that Chael Sonnen is, but few people are, and unlike Sonnen, Okami won't choke in the last two minutes of the round and leave himself open to a triangle.


That is why this is a dangerous fight for Silva and, shock of shocks, he could lose a boring decision...in front of his countrymen, no less, possibly killing the territory for the UFC in the process. And, honestly, I kind of want to pick Okami because it'll make me look really smart, which would be pretty cool. However, Anderson Silva is going to be the champ for as long as his speed and reflexes hold up. Silva will TKO Okami in the third round.

Ten on Tuesday

Here's the old Batman Comment
Key wall, prior to it falling into disrepair.

1. Most of last week and a majority of this week is all about getting my class room ready for the onslaught of students come August 9. This means that I get to unpack all of the books and make my desk look like my desk again. It's also high time that I redo or update my "teacher walls," since it's been a few years since I initially committed to putting some thought into them. Most teacher walls feature a collection of student work or are based on a specific piece of literature. I decided to instead make them a reflection of myself since I'm a narcissist and a few students each year say they look cool. My Spider-Man wall is largely intact, as it features motivational frames of Marvel superheroes that my wife found at a .99 cent store. However, the Batman wall with my comment key and the Brave Times based News Flash wall are both getting makeover. I'll post pictures when everything is complete.

2. Spider-Man (the dog) achieved a milestone today by staying in the house alone for an extended period of time. Besides our dog being the normal, everyday jerk that he is also appears to suffer from this weird separation anxiety, the origin of which I couldn't begin to explain to anyone. He just tends to freak out if either myself or Angela leaves and he's aware of it. To combat these howling episodes since we moved into our house, Spider-Man (the dog) goes outside whenever we leave the premises. It's an attitude held over from our apartment living days; in both places where we lived with Spider-Man (the dog), we've received letters from management about his howling. Granted, it was one time (from each place), but it lead us to do whatever we could to prevent the world from ending. Home ownership has chilled everyone out, our dog included, it seems. I left him twice today: once for about two hours while I went to get my car serviced, and the second time when I went to work and then the gym afterward. Nothing was destroyed nor were there any accidents upon my return. He did, however, refuse to leave my side the rest of the night, much to the amusement of my wife.

3. My general rule of thumb is to keep up with two books at the same time, one physical book and another on my iPad. I recently finished The Bell Jar for my physical book and am still working my way through A Clash of Kings, the second thousand page entry in the Song of Ice and Fire series. The problem is that I don't know what physical book to read next, despite having plenty of options to choose from at home. Something light would be nice, prior to the school year beginning.

4. Instead of doing a full rundown on the absolutely cursed UFC 133 card, I'll just say that my brain says Rashad Evans will win but my heart is rooting for Tito Ortiz. This is a combination of Rashad being hateable in every way since he's trying to garner sympathy for himself despite being the one that chose to sit out a year and a half in order to avoid the position he's currently in and Tito being on a roll having beaten Ryan Bader at UFC 132. It might also have to do with the fact that Tito winning at the last pay per view allowed me to cash in on a little wager while attending the show in Las Vegas, so the Huntington Beach Bad Boy did me a solid. The least I can do is back his play against Rashad.

5. In the pages of Ultimate Comics Spider-Man this week, we find that the newest character to take on the mantle of the webslinger is Miles Morales, a fellow of mixed race heritage (Hispanic/African-American descent to be exact). This is pretty cool, and the impetus for it started last year when Donald Glover, from NBC's Community, started a Twitter campaign to cast himself in the role of Peter Parker in The Amazing Spider-Man. While Sony went with Andrew Garfield, Glover's idea of an African-American Spider-Man does raise some interesting questions. What in Spider-Man's make up as a character makes him white? Except for the fact that Stan Lee and Steve Ditko originally chose him to be white, nothing does. He's a poor orphan living with his aunt in urban New York. Describe someone with those qualities nowadays and Peter Parker is the last person that would come to mind. Add to the fact that Spider-Man's costume covers him from head-to-toe, unlike Batman or Superman, and it allows anyone to envision themselves as Spidey, which is an important aspect of the character. I have a near complete run of Ultimate Spider-Man, and this news has me really excited to see where the story takes him.

6. Qdoba always feels like a much lighter meal than Chipotle.

7. My iMac currently runs on 1GB of RAM, so I'm contemplating purchasing some more (4GB) and installing it myself. While I'm very Internet savvy, I've never been too tech savvy, so I hope that YouTube video I saw showing the step-by-step process of how to make the switch doesn't steer me wrong.

8. The toughest part about going back to school is trying to get my sleep schedule back under control.

9. That CM Punk shirt I was so hyped up about before is now available for pre-order, and I'm wondering if I should buy that instead of the RAM for my computer. THESE ARE ACTUAL THINGS THAT I CONTEMPLATE!

10. Unfortunately, while CM Punk and his shirt are still the best in the world, WWE pretty much did what they always do and caused me to lose interest in the angle. It's too bad, too, since Summerslam is taking place at the Staples Center on August 14.

Ten on Tuesday

Because I've desperately wanted to blog but lacked the focus to do so lately, I decided to steal an idea (while giving credit, mind you, so it's technically not stealing nor is it plagiarism but it's also easier to write steal than give this kind of long-winded explanation) that I saw an old college friend borrow from someone else (language alert on that last one). The original idea is to discuss ten things (on Tuesday) going on in my life as a means of catching up, but I'm just going to modify it to apply to ten things that I've done or been thinking about. Sure, most people will be reading this on Wednesday (if ever), and a Five on Friday idea would be much easier, but it's still technically Tuesday as I begin to write and Friday would be a much more difficult day to attempt this, which leads to number one.

1. Coming on the heels of our anniversary weekend trip to Las Vegas, the wife and I are headed out there for a truncated one night stay to show some friends how to do things up right. Never in my life did I expect to be the kind of person that could show Vegas newbies around town, but with our trips over the last few years coming about every six months, I guess it's time to accept that my wife and I are those people.

2. Aside from the time I spent lesson planning with Ms. Windt last month, today was one of the most productive of the summer. I replaced my car key battery, took Spider-Man (the dog) to get his vaccinations, saw Transformers: Dark of the Moon, got some quality reading time in, and went to the gym. This is what passes for accomplishment during the summer.

3. Spider-Man (the dog) has been having a bit of a rough time today due to said vaccinations or just the visit to the vet in general. Either way, dog vomit is annoying but also a great name for a hardcore punk band. He's fine now, thankfully.

4. Speaking of lesson planning, thanks to mine and Ms. Windt's foresight, we have the first four weeks of Frosh Honors English planned out. This is an amazing feat. Trust me.

5. A trailer for The Amazing Spider-Man leaked today. When it comes to comic book movies, I really try to give them the benefit of the doubt until their release, but so many things bug me (HAH!) about the choices Marc Webb and company are making for the film that I'm beginning to wonder if the director got the gig based solely on his name (See what I did there?). The costume hasn't wowed me mostly because I don't like the rounded off red section that remains disconnected from the belt, however, I understand the need to set the costume apart visually from the Raimi movies. I don't even mind that Sony has chosen to reboot a franchise whose last movie came out just four years ago. Despite the so-so box office returns, The Incredible Hulk was a short-term reboot that fixed and addressed the problems with the Ang Lee original. What kills me is the idea that we, the audience, have such short-term memories that they need to once again do another retelling of Spider-Man's origin. The same applies to the upcoming Superman reboot, Man of Steel. You know those "Previously on..." segments at the beginning of one hour dramas? That's how long it should take to tell the origin of any comic book character that's had a film in the past 25 years. Comic books have told interesting stories about superheroes for nearly 80 years now and have done so without needing to constantly spend a third or more of their content space devoted to the origin of the character.

6. CM Punk really is the Best Wrestler in the World right now, and I'm glad I spent money watching him put on a classic match at WWE Money in the Bank. I won't bore anyone by recapping his recent phenomenal storyline here; it's hard to appreciate if you're not a long-term fan. However, Punk's exit that night (a screencap of which I included) was one of the greatest in recent memory. By the by, if anyone knows a way to get me a copy of the shirt he wore to the ring for his match that night, I would really dig it. The current asking price for an XL on eBay has been in the neighborhood of $250, since it was a limited edition deal that was only available at the show in Chicago. But I figure the many people who will see this are industrious and/or richer than I am, so it never hurts to ask.

7. Why isn't there a Dunkin Donuts presence here in Southern California? Granted, not having access to yet another donut chain is probably good for my wallet and waistline, but I am a glutton for movie tie-ins, especially comic book movie tie-ins. After getting a Thor Big Gulp cup back in May, I assumed that 7-Eleven would handle all of my Marvel needs by handling the Captain America stuff, too. Then I could have a matching set of Avengers cups prior to the team finding their way to the big screen next summer. Unfortunately, Dunkin Donuts scored that particular license, and none exist in a 50 mile radius. Seriously, I looked. It doesn't help that the franchise still advertises in California, thus rubbing it in my face that I can never drink a Captain America Coolatta. I don't even know what a "Coolatta" is but if Captain America puts his name on it, then it can't be bad.

8. I also wanted to devote an entire entry to testosterone replacement therapy and it's use among UFC/MMA fighters, but I devote too much space to the latter subject on this blog as it is, so I'll just speak to the former here. It's cheating. Men that do genuinely need testosterone replacement therapy fall into two camps: those who are later along in life (usually in their late 40's to early 50's) and experience a genuine drop in their body's level of testosterone and those who have artificially boosted their level of testosterone through the use of steroids and damaged their endocrine system to the degree that they now need to bring their body's amount up to normal levels. If fighters fall into either of the two camps, they should no longer be professional fighters. Period. Here's what most people seem to forget about the use of steroids in mixed martial arts: they don't make a fighter stronger, granting an incredible Hulk-like physique. They aren't a super soldier serum that will suddenly make scrawny Steve Rogers into taller and buffer Captain America. A person taking steroids will not wake up with more muscles the next day or the next week. Steroids allow people to recover from workouts faster so they can workout more without the fatigue and muscle soreness associated with working out. It doesn't matter if a fighter tests positive for steroids on the day of their fight, as is the norm for testing with almost every state athletic commission these days. Should a fighter test positive on that day, that person is an idiot who didn't get the full use out of the steroids in the first place. Taking steroids during their training camp is where the benefit lies. This is why UFC should pay for truly random out-of-competition testing for their fighters as condition of the new health insurance the company has provided for them. Anyone who claims a need for therapeutic use should be shown the door, which sadly includes Chael Sonnen, a fighter I happen to enjoy a great deal.

9. Noticing gray hair in my beard is really cool because I feel like I'm one step closer to that distinguished professorial look I've always wanted to achieve. Next stop, corduroy jackets with suede elbow patches!

10. Man, Transformers: Dark of the Moon was an awful movie. However, Sam Witwicky's mom is still the most entertaining character in the entire franchise. Even if Shia LeBeef fails to return for the next one, I sure hope his parents make an appearance.

UFC 132

Longtime readers of the blog will remember that I last attended a UFC show for UFC 121, headlined by Brock Lesnar losing his Heavyweight Championship to Cain Velasquez. My wife and I are taking a trip to Las Vegas to coincide with our fourth anniversary, and our big Vegas show that we will grace with our presence is UFC 132, her second and my sixth Ultimate Fighting Championship event.

This is a card that has a lot to offer in terms of star power despite a main event that will probably fail to resonate too much with mainstream viewers. While the undercard is stacked in terms of good fights, there are few big names or huge prospects fighting outside of Brian Bowles taking on Takeya Mizugaki and Melvin Guillard fighting Shane Roller. I expect the former of both fights to win, and Bowles should really be on the fast track to fighting the winner of the Faber/Cruz title fight on this show. Bowles spent a year on the shelf after breaking his hand and throwing in the towel in between the first and second round to current champ Dominick Cruz. He's won one fight since then and, as a former champ, deserves a shot to reclaim the gold.

Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman - This is a classic striker versus wrestler match up. Siver showed good takedown defense against George Sotiropoulos, but Sotiropoulos isn't known for his wrestling, while Wiman is a grinder who doesn't mind making fights ugly, ironic since his nickname is "Handsome." Matt Wiman should take this one by decision as long as his chin holds up and he avoids the spinning body kick that's become Siver's specialty.

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim - Speaking of grinding, this match presents two different types of fighters who specialize in it. The difference between them is that Condit rarely has a boring fight and Kim almost always has a boring fight. Suffice to say, regardless of who wins, I hope Condit's habit overrules Kim's. Condit has superior and exciting stand up, but Kim has the wrestling and grappling edge, which determines the direction of a fight more often than not. This doesn't look good for Condit unless he has a really solid game plan for Kim's skill set, and I don't suspect that even a Greg Jackson strategy will save him. This will go to a decision and Kim will take it.

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader - Darth Bader's sole loss in his career is to current Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones while Tito Ortiz hasn't won a fight since 2006. This goes a long way to show how valuable it is to be a star as opposed to a guy that just wins. Ortiz's last win came five years ago against a washed-up Ken Shamrock, a dude who headlined the very FIRST UFC back in 1993 (*).

(*) As an interesting sidenote/humblebrag, this will be the fifth Tito Ortiz fight I attend live. The first was against Ken Shamrock in 2002, then his first loss to Chuck Liddell, followed by his split decision win over Forrest Griffin, and the recent loss to Matt Hamill. 

Any other guy with this many losses in a row normally would have been released from his contract, but because Tito Ortiz is a star (albeit a falling one) and gets people to talk about him, he remains employed. Each one of his recent fights has been accompanied by rumors that it's his last in the UFC should he lose because he can no longer hang at the top level in the sport due to a litany of injuries and the game passing him by. His stand up has always been mediocre and his archaic game plan is to take a guy down and pound them out from their guard. Fighters are so well-rounded now that it's a strategy most can see through, and more and more people with better wrestling are taking up MMA. In fact, Ortiz has become the go-to guy for up and coming fighters to challenge because they figure it's an easy win, and the best way to become a star is to beat one. The privilege has fallen to Ryan Bader, a guy who is reminiscent of a young Tito Ortiz for how he incorporates wrestling but also has the knockout power that Ortiz has never possessed. This fight is the nail in the coffin of Tito Ortiz's long UFC career and Ryan Bader is the hammer. Bader will beat Ortiz by TKO in the second round, and hopefully Tito will announce his retirement because otherwise it'll just be sad. However, this is Tito Ortiz we're talking about, and smart decisions are not his strong suit.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben - Think of every fighting cliche available and they will all be employed here. It's got "barroom brawl," "slugfest," "slobberknocker," "dream match," and "fight of the night" written all over it. Both of these guys throw wild, swing-for-the-fences punches looking for the knockout and have the ability to get knocked out cold. Either guy has the ability to win this fight, which is another really stupid and obvious cliche but also one that applies. Leben is coming off a devastating first round TKO loss by Brian Stann back in January, while Silva has taken a long time to recover from knee surgery and broken ribs, last fighting in February of 2010. Leben is best when he's fighting regularly because he tends to get into trouble when given time to himself, whereas Silva is well past his prime. Perhaps finally fixing his knee will be the missing component that has prevented Silva from stringing together more than two wins in a row, but I doubt it'll show in this fight due to the seventeen month layoff and subsequent ring rust that will accompany it. Leben will knockout Silva in the second round.

Urijah Faber vs. Dominick Cruz (c) for the UFC Bantamweight Championship - The story behind the animosity between Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz is one of my favorite of the many rivalries that exist in MMA. Four years ago, on the second WEC card under the Zuffa umbrella, Dominick Cruz challenged Urijah Faber for the Featherweight Championship. Cruz felt slighted that the promotional poster only showcased Faber, as opposed to both fighters. As retribution, Cruz decided to sign any and all autographs for the show on said promo poster directly over Faber's face, thinking that it would totally show Urijah who was boss and not make Dominick look like a whiny little baby. Faber retaliated by choking Cruz out with a guillotine inside of two minutes into the first round. The two have continued to hate each other ever since (**).

(**) Of course, Urijah Faber's version of hating someone is a lot different than most people because he's the happiest, most upbeat fighter in MMA. For him, hating someone just means that he says he doesn't think the person in question is "cool."

That was in 2007. Today, circumstances have changed. Faber defended his title, lost his title, lost his attempts at winning the title back, and has moved down to bantamweight. Faber is the most marketable fighter out of the two new weight classes UFC introduced earlier this year, but this is realistically his last chance at a belt for a very long time. He's lost two attempts to reclaim the Featherweight Championship, and this is his third championship fight in two years. It's rare to get one championship fight in that span of time, let alone three, making this do or die for the challenger in terms of title contention and capitalizing on his marketability in making these lighter weight classes matter.

Meanwhile, Cruz moved down to 135 lbs. since their initial outing, employing a stick and move style that has become his trademark and went on a winning streak that involved earning the Bantamweight Championship. He has yet to finish a fight as a bantamweight, unless you count the aforementioned Brian Bowles breaking his hand and giving up the title, but that was more Bowles taking himself out of the equation than Cruz finishing him. The fact is that Dominick Cruz is a boring fighter, but one that is incredibly difficult to fight and beat. He's quick, constantly moving, and approaches his stand up from weird angles, making it tough to land a takedown or a counter. What he lacks in power, he makes up for in technique, so, while he may not knock someone out or even knock them down, he'll consistently land and make sure that his opponent doesn't.

Faber is everything Cruz isn't as a fighter: entertaining, uses flashy moves, isn't afraid to engage, and works towards a finish. As a bantamweight, Faber is finally fighting from the position of being the more powerful guy, something he's rarely been able to do in the past. His two previous fights at bantamweight show that he hasn't given up his speed in the weight cut, nor does it seem like he's lost any of his cardio. Faber has great grappling and submissions along with power in his hands that can knock out most folks.

Recently, Dominick Cruz wrote a blog for Sportsnet in Canada discussing how he finally understood that working towards being a star in the eyes of the public is as much a part of his job as training is for an upcoming fight. He then went on to complain yet again about the perceived slight he felt from four years ago, and what he fails to understand is how much he comes off like a jerkbag by constantly complaining about being left off a poster in lieu of the then champion FOUR YEARS AGO. In pro wrestling, the greatest heels (the bad guys) are always the dudes that feel like they're righteous in doing dastardly things. Dominick Cruz thinks he's right, and yet he's the biggest heel in the bantamweight division. In my heart, I want Urijah Faber to win and not just because my wife thinks he's cute. He's just more fun and, seemingly, just a better person by not being so boring. It is entirely possible that Cruz will win by a frustrating decision wherein he constantly avoids contact and sneaks in a punch here or there, I'm going with my heart on this one and calling it for Urijah Faber by guillotine in the first round. Because sometimes justice can be poetic.